China’s new energy vehicle production and sales have ranked first in the world for three consecutive years. The August production and sales data of the China Automobile Association also shows that the production and sales of new energy vehicles still maintain rapid growth. The scale and speed alone can be said to be thriving, but behind it, what is the actual development status of the industry?
On September 1, during the TEDA Automotive Forum, China Automotive Technology Research Center Co., Ltd. released the “China New Energy Vehicle Development Effect Evaluation and Technical Policy Guide” for the first time, combining a large amount of industry data to analyze the current situation of China’s new energy vehicle industry technical indicators , And the technological gap with foreign countries.
The “Guide” is mainly launched from three aspects: the evaluation of the development effect of new energy vehicles, the comparative evaluation at home and abroad, and the technical policy recommendations, covering vehicle performance, power batteries, safety, intelligence, investment, employment, taxation, energy saving, emission reduction, etc. This field more comprehensively reflects the development status of China’s new energy automobile industry.
Data statistics show that technical indicators such as the energy consumption level of new energy vehicles and the energy density of the battery system are improving, which has obvious stimulating effects on investment, employment, and taxation, and has contributed to the energy conservation and emission reduction of the entire society.
But there are also disadvantages. The new energy automobile industry still has overcapacity and overheated investment. Product safety, reliability, and consistency still need to be improved. There is a clear gap between key intelligent technology and fuel cell technology and foreign countries.
A large proportion of the current product technical indicators can reach the subsidy threshold
Because the new energy vehicle subsidy policy was officially implemented on June 12, 2018, the China Automobile Center analyzed the new energy vehicle The key technical indicators of passenger cars, passenger cars and special vehicles have been evaluated as follows for the technical effects of the products.
1. Passenger car
Energy consumption level technical effectiveness evaluation-93% of pure electric passenger vehicles can meet the subsidy threshold of 1 times, of which 40% of products reach the subsidy threshold of 1.1 times. The ratio of current actual fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles to the current standard, that is, the relative limit of fuel consumption, is mostly between 62%-63% and 55%-56%. In the B state, the fuel consumption relative to the limit is reduced by about 2% annually, and there is not much room for the energy consumption of plug-in passenger cars to decrease.
Battery system energy density technology effectiveness evaluation——The energy density of the battery system of pure electric passenger cars has maintained a rapid increase. Vehicles with a system energy density higher than 115Wh/kg have accounted for 98%, reaching the threshold of 1 times the subsidy coefficient; among them, vehicles with a system energy density higher than 140Wh/kg accounted for 56%, reaching the 1.1 times the threshold of subsidy coefficient.
China Automobile Center predicts that from the second half of this year to 2019, the system energy density of power batteries will continue to increase. The average density is expected to be around 150Wh/kg in 2019, and some models may reach 170Wh/kg.
Evaluation of the effectiveness of continued driving range technology-At present, there are vehicle models distributed in each range of mileage, and the market demand is diversified, but the mainstream models are mostly distributed in the 300-400km area. From the perspective of future trends, the driving range will continue to increase, and the average driving range is expected to be 350km in 2019.
2. Bus
Evaluation of technical effectiveness of energy consumption per unit load mass-the policy subsidy threshold is 0.21Wh/km·kg. Vehicles with 0.15-0.21Wh/km·kg accounted for 67%, reaching the 1 times subsidy standard, and 0.15Wh/km·kg and below accounted for 33%, reaching 1.1 times the subsidy standard. There is still room for improvement in the energy consumption level of pure electric buses in the future.
Battery system energy density technology effectiveness evaluation-the policy subsidy threshold is 115Wh/kg. Vehicles above 135Wh/kg accounted for as much as 86%, reaching 1.1 times the subsidy standard. The average annual increase is about 18%, and the rate of increase will slow down in the future.
3. Special vehicle
Evaluation of technical effectiveness of energy consumption per unit load mass-mainly in the range of 0.20~0.35 Wh/km·kg, and there is a large gap in the technical indicators of different models. The policy subsidy threshold is 0.4 Wh/km·kg. 91% of the models reached the 1 times subsidy standard, and 9% of the models reached the 0.2 times subsidy standard.
Battery system energy density technology effectiveness evaluation-mainly concentrated in the 125~130Wh/kg range, the policy subsidy threshold is 115 Wh/kg, 115~130Wh/kg models account for 89%, of which 130~145Wh/kg models account for 11%.
Post time: Oct-16-2021